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External Analyst

The writer(s) are external experts. Bangalore Aviation may not agree with the views expressed by the author. Authors prefer to remain anonymous for a variety of reasons but mostly since they are not authorised by their employers to express their views publicly on the record.

Seven key implementation challenges of UDAN the Regional Connectivity Scheme

Tails of Air India and it's old subsidiary Alliance Air.

5 bidders were awarded routes under th;e regional connectivity scheme called UDAN and announced this Thursday. The selected bidders were SpiceJet Alliance Air TruJet Air Odisha Air Deccan These airlines collectively are scheduled to fly 128 RCS routes connecting the North, South, East and West parts of the countries with unserved and underserved cities.  Bangalore Aviation has been looking at …

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Christoph Mueller could be Etihad’s new CEO

Etihad Airways Airbus A320 A6-EIC.

Industry sources indicate that Christoph Mueller is likely to be appointed as the CEO of Etihad.  The appointment comes at a time when the airline is facing severe challenges specifically —  a rising cost base and declining yields that resulted in the departure of its previous CEO James Hogan along with several other members. A turnaround expert A no-nonsense and extremely direct person, …

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DGCAs new regressive policy on callsigns

Qatar Airways Airbus A319LR cockpit

The DGCA has put out a circular with guidelines on avoiding confusing call-signs by operators. Presumably this comes about after a handful of incidents where callsigns were confused. However, this move by the regulator that fails to address the real issue. Full document may be accessed at: http://dgca.nic.in/aic/AIC02_2017.pdf Thoroughly confusing and impractical guildelines The guidelines have a bullet list of provisions. Who is …

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SpiceJet Q3FY17 results analysis: severe turbulence ahead

SpiceJet Boeing 737-800 VT-SPJ. Photo copyright Devesh Agarwal.

Spicejet reported its third quarter (ending December 31) results for the fiscal year ending March 31 2017 (FY2017). With earnings of Rs 181.1 crores, the results were below expectations. As was the case with its competitors, consistent fare sales and aggressive capacity addition added to the revenue pressure but as SpiceJet usually leads in the fare sales and demand stimulation, …

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Jet Airways Q3 FY17 results analysis: challenging times ahead

Jet Airways Boeing 737-800 VT-JGA.

Jet Airways reported its third quarter (ending December 31) results for the fiscal year ending March 31 2017 (FY2017). With earnings of Rs 156.3 crores, the results were much below expectations and point to structural challenges. The results decline was driven by intense competition in the market, consistent fare sales and aggressive capacity addition – all of which added to …

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Analysis: IndiGo Q3FY17 results highlight challenging environment

Indigo Airbus A320neo VT-ITC. Copyrighted image. Re-use prohibited.

IndiGo reported its third quarter (ending December 31) results for the fiscal year ending March 31 2017 (FY2017). With earnings of Rs 487.3 crores, the results yet again failed to meet analysts’ expectations. As reported earlier, intense competition in the market, consistent fare sales and aggressive capacity addition have added to the revenue pressures. Key numbers Total revenue: Rs 5,158 …

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Indigo Q2 fiscal 2017 results analysis – Capacity affects yields and profits

IndiGo first A320neo VT-ITC touches down at New Delhi's IGI airport after a non-stop flight from Toulouse, France

IndiGo reported its second quarter (ending September 30) results for the fiscal year ending March 31 2017 (FY2017). With earnings of Rs 139.8 crores, the results yet again failed to meet analysts’ expectations. As reported earlier, intense competition in the market, consistent fare sales and aggressive capacity addition have added to the revenue pressures. Key numbers Passenger Revenue – Rs. …

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SpiceJet Q1FY17 results analysis

Spicejet Boeing 737-800WL VT-SGK at New Delhi airport.

SpiceJetJet reported numbers for the first quarter and the earnings did not disappoint. For the quarter ending 30 June 2016, the airline reported a net profit of INR 149 crores with the same fleet as the previous quarter. The impact on the share prices was almost immediate with almost a 20% rise to INR 67.7 per share. An analysis of …

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Bengaluru and Mumbai airports plan runway closures. Pax, airlines, fares hit.

Runway 09 at Kempegowda airport, Bangalore. Image copyright Devesh Agarwal. All rights reserved. Used with permission.

As Air traffic grows at an exponential pace, Indian airports are struggling to keep up. Building capacity ahead of demand has never quite been the norm and this is now catching up. Airports like Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune, Goa are severely constrained and in the near term the capacity woes will continue. While terminal capacity and landside capacity can be managed, …

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Jet Airways Q1 FY2017 results analysis – headwinds and turbulence likely

Jet Airways Boeing 777-300ER VT-JEG performing flight 9W117 from London approaches Mumbai airport

Jet Airways reported results on August 12th with a net profit of Rs 103.1 crores on revenues of Rs 5,112 crores for the first quarter of fiscal year 2016-17 (FY17). The results indicate several challenges and highlights are as below: Operational performance The quarter saw an overall capacity increase of 3.8% compared to the same quarter last year, when measured …

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Jet Airways Q4 and full year 2015-16 results and performance analysis

Jet Airways Boeing 737-700 VT-JNS at Bengaluru Kempegowda airport

Jet Airways recently reported numbers for the quarter and the year. For the fourth quarter ending 31 March 2016, the airline reported an impressive net profit of Rs 3,972 million and for the year a net profit of INR 11,733 million. After extensive research into qualitative and quantitative details an analysis is presented below: Strategic shift Jet has moved away …

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Indian aviation largely overlooked in the 2016 budget

The nightly aircraft line-up tail parade at the apron of Kempegowda International Airport Bangalore

For all the talk of the Government promoting aviation and as the industry watched with baited breath, the budget seems to have continued the Modi-government’s ignoring of  civil aviation. The sum-total budget proposals pertinent to aviation do not even warrant us writing an article. If anything, they could likely be summed up in an SMS message. Namely, Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) …

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Analysis: How will IndiGo integrate the Airbus A320neo?

IndiGo's first A320neo. MSN6799. VT-ITC. Photo courtesy the airline.

Indigo received their first Airbus A320neo (new engine option) today and within a week of the Directorate General’s of Civil Aviation approval with type certificate. With a few more formalities the aircraft will be ready to fly the Indian skies making Indigo the first Asian and Indian operator of the new aircraft. Other airlines (GoAir, Vistara and Air India, all have …

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Jet Airways’ Q2 FY2016 profits still reflect some concerns

Jet Airways Airbus A330-300 VT-JWQ. Image copyright Vedant Agarwal.

Jet Airways recently reported results for the second quarter (July – Sept).  Profit for the quarter was at 87.5 crores however, that does not give the complete picture. Analysed further the numbers bring up several trends. Lower fuel prices have helped bring down costs significantly Jet Airways CASK (cost per available seat kilometre) is in the range of Rs 4.14 …

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Global distribution systems and airline ticket distribution in India

Airline global distribution system network. Graphic by Devesh Agarwal

With the recent news around Lufthansa levying a surcharge for all bookings via global distribution systems (GDS), the debate on airline distribution has returned to the forefront. We examine the distribution strategies of various airlines in the Indian context Despite the push by airlines to offer direct bookings via their websites, these global distribution systems still handle significant booking volumes …

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IndiGo aircraft order MOU expired. What questions investors should ask IndiGo.

IndiGo_A320 classic VT-INT. Photo: Devesh Agarwal.

India’s largest domestic airline Indigo filed a 557 page draft red herring prospectus (DHRP) which is a preliminary document towards an initial public offering (IPO). For 10% of the company, Indigo is targeting an IPO of approximately $400 million (Rs 2,500 crores), effectively giving the airline a valuation of $4 billion. The funds from the IPO are to be used …

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A day of revival at Malaysia Airlines and lessons for our national carrier

The 1st of June was a day of revival for Malaysia Airlines. As of that day all 20,000 odd employees were served termination letters and all assets transferred to a new entity. The new company will subsequently re-employ 2/3rds of the staff but on new terms and contracts. This drastic but necessary decision is being carried out given the precarious …

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